Let’s talk about heartbreak for a second. BYU fans know it all too well when March rolls around. Those Cougars have packed their dancing shoes and promptly tripped over their own feet in the first round for five straight tournament appearances. Ouch. The last time they actually survived opening weekend? Way back in 2011 when Jimmer Fredette was still making defenders look silly.
But here’s the thing about curses – they’re meant to be broken. And this year’s BYU squad might just have the magic formula to finally snap that frustrating streak when they face off against VCU on Thursday.
Vegas oddsmakers have BYU favored, but don’t tell that to the brackets across America where VCU is becoming that trendy upset pick everyone thinks they’re clever for choosing. So who’s right? Let’s break down this matchup that has all the makings of either a curse-breaking moment or another chapter in BYU’s tournament horror story.
Where and when to catch the action
Before we dive into the juicy details, let’s get the basics covered. This East Regional first-round showdown tips off at 4:05 p.m. ET on Thursday at Ball Arena in Denver. You can catch all the action on TNT or stream it on Max or the March Madness Live app if you’re one of those cord-cutters.
If you’re feeling particularly adventurous and want to witness BYU’s potential exorcism of their Round of 64 demons in person, you can still snag tickets on StubHub. Just be prepared for the Mile High City’s thin air to have you winded just from cheering.
BYU’s offensive firepower could light up Denver
If basketball were just about putting the ball in the hoop, we’d already be talking about BYU in the Sweet Sixteen. These Cougars can flat-out score in ways that would make their famous alum Jimmer Fredette proud.
They’re offensive wizards in any tempo. Whether teams want to slow it down or turn the game into a track meet, BYU is equally comfortable. They enter the tournament ranked an impressive 5th nationally in effective field goal percentage, knocking down 37 percent from downtown and a ridiculous 59 percent on two-pointers.
Ball movement that would make Steve Kerr jealous. The way BYU shares the rock is a beautiful thing to watch. They rank top-30 in the country in assist-to-field-goals-made ratio, carving up defenses like they’re serving a Thanksgiving turkey. When five guys on the court are all threats to score, it becomes a defensive nightmare trying to stop them.
Their timing couldn’t be better. Kevin Young’s squad isn’t just good – they’re peaking at the perfect moment. Over the final month of regular season play, they ranked in the top-10 nationally in overall rating and Wins Above Bubble according to the analytics gurus. Winners in nine of their last ten games, they’re entering the tournament hotter than a jalapeño on a summer sidewalk.
Size that makes other teams look like middle schoolers. With one of the tallest rosters in the entire tournament, BYU dominates the glass on both ends, ranking in the top 70 nationally in offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. Junior center Keba Keita is particularly brutal on the boards, giving opponents nightmares about missed box-out opportunities.
Their bench doesn’t let up. Nearly 42 percent of BYU’s minutes came from bench players this season, meaning they can keep throwing fresh bodies at you while maintaining their quality of play. In a tournament where fatigue can be the difference between advancing and heading home, that depth is massive.
But those defensive issues could be their downfall
For all their offensive brilliance, the Cougars sometimes treat defense like it’s optional extra credit work.
They’ve been giving up buckets lately. Over their last 10 regular-season games, BYU ranked an alarming 164th in defensive field goal percentage, allowing opponents to hit over 50 percent of their two-pointers and 34 percent from deep. Against a guard-heavy team like VCU, those numbers should have Cougar fans feeling nervous.
Free throw shooting gives fans heart attacks. When games get tight in March, free throws often decide who advances and who goes home. BYU converts just 69.4 percent at the charity stripe, and they don’t get there often either – only 15.5 percent of their points come from free throws, ranking an abysmal 356th nationally. In a close game, those missed points could haunt them.
VCU brings elite guards and suffocating defense
Don’t let their 11-seed fool you – these Rams have the ingredients to ruin BYU’s redemption story.
Their guard play is absolutely elite. Max Shulga, Phillip Russell, and Joe Bamisile form a three-headed monster in the backcourt, with Zeb Jackson coming off the bench as yet another double-figure scorer. When the tournament lights get bright, experienced guards typically shine brightest – and VCU has four senior guards they can rely on. That’s terrifying for opponents.
They turn defense into their identity. The Rams rank sixth nationally in defensive field goal percentage, holding opponents to just 45.1 percent effective shooting. They’re also top-30 in both turnover and steal percentage, meaning they’re constantly disrupting offensive flow and creating easy transition opportunities for themselves.
They bomb away from downtown. VCU isn’t afraid to let it fly from beyond the arc, which makes them dangerous as an underdog. We’ve all seen how a hot shooting night from deep can erase any talent gap in March.
But VCU’s resume raises serious questions
Despite their strengths, there are legitimate reasons to doubt the Rams when the competition level rises.
They haven’t beaten many quality teams. VCU has just one Quad 1 win all season and actually suffered a Quad 4 loss to 7-24 Seton Hall in overtime. They played just one KenPom top-50 team all year, losing to New Mexico by seven points. That lack of proven success against elite competition makes them something of an unknown quantity on this stage.
Their frontcourt is paper thin. While their guard play is outstanding, VCU’s big men – Jack Clark, Christian Fermin, and Luke Bamgboye – are serviceable but not spectacular. Against BYU’s size and depth in the frontcourt, this could become a serious problem if any of them get into foul trouble.
So who survives and advances?
When you stack these teams against each other, what jumps out is a classic contrast in styles. BYU brings offensive fireworks and size but questionable defense. VCU counters with elite perimeter defense and guard play but potential issues in the frontcourt.
In tournament games, guard play often makes the difference, which gives VCU a puncher’s chance. But BYU’s combination of size, offensive efficiency, and momentum makes them the more complete team right now.
The Cougars’ ability to score in multiple ways gives them more paths to victory, while VCU likely needs to force turnovers and hit outside shots to pull the upset. If BYU can handle the ball against pressure and exploit their size advantage inside, they should finally snap that first-round losing streak.
But don’t be shocked if Max Shulga hits a dagger three in the final minutes to extend BYU’s March misery for another year. After all, tournament heartbreak is something Cougar fans know all too well.
