Movie theaters are preparing for an explosive Thanksgiving weekend as “Wicked,” “Gladiator II” and “Moana 2” hit screens simultaneously, aiming to recreate the cultural moment that made “Barbenheimer” a sensation last year. The triple release strategy comes at a crucial time for an industry seeking to bounce back from recent setbacks.
The “Barbenheimer” phenomenon, which saw “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” dominate both social media and ticket sales, has theater owners hoping lightning will strike twice. Fandango director of movie analytics Shawn Robbins suggests that while the Thanksgiving lineup might not reach those heights, the pre-release buzz feels familiar.
Box office projections paint an optimistic picture. “Wicked” is expected to lead the pack with projected earnings between $80 million and $85 million in its opening weekend. “Gladiator II” forecasts range from $55 million to $65 million, while “Moana 2” could surpass $100 million during the five-day holiday period.
These numbers would provide welcome relief for an industry that has weathered significant challenges in 2023. Domestic box office revenues have declined more than 11% compared to 2022 and nearly 27% from pre-pandemic 2019. Production delays and a shortage of crowd-pleasing releases have left theaters hungry for success.
Thanksgiving traditionally draws large audiences to theaters, with 2018 setting a record of $315 million in total ticket sales. However, recent holiday seasons have disappointed, with 2022 bringing in just $125 million. Industry insiders see this year’s diverse slate as an opportunity to reverse the trend.
Each film brings its own appeal to different audiences. “Wicked,” starring Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, transforms the Broadway sensation into a cinematic spectacle. Erivo portrays Elphaba, the misunderstood witch who becomes the Wicked Witch of the West, while Grande takes on the role of Glinda. The adaptation faces the challenge of breaking the streak of unsuccessful stage-to-screen transitions.
“Gladiator II” marks director Ridley Scott’s return to ancient Rome, featuring Paul Mescal and Denzel Washington in a follow-up to the 2000 Oscar winner. Scott’s decision to maintain an R rating sets this epic apart from typical holiday fare, potentially drawing audiences seeking more intense entertainment.
“Moana 2” evolved from a planned Disney+ series into a full theatrical release, building on the success of its predecessor. The original film’s streaming popularity suggests a built-in audience eager to continue the journey, with expectations high for both storytelling and musical elements.
The timing of these releases could prove crucial for theater operators. Flix Brewhouse chief revenue officer Chris Randleman believes multiple major releases can rapidly boost ticket sales, especially during the extended holiday weekend when families traditionally seek entertainment options.
The industry’s recovery hinges on drawing diverse audiences back to theaters. Paramount’s president of domestic distribution Chris Aronson emphasizes the importance of offering various options to moviegoers. With “Wicked” targeting musical enthusiasts, “Gladiator II” appealing to action fans and “Moana 2” drawing families, theaters hope to capture a wide demographic.
This Thanksgiving’s lineup represents more than just potential profits; it symbolizes the resilience of theatrical releases in an era dominated by streaming services. While the success of these films remains to be seen, their simultaneous release demonstrates the industry’s commitment to creating memorable cinematic events.
As audiences prepare for this cinematic feast, the question remains whether these films can generate the same cultural impact as “Barbenheimer.” Regardless, the combination of fantasy, historical epic and animation provides compelling reasons for moviegoers to return to theaters during the holiday season.
