The Celtics won it all last year, but now they’re facing a $500 million payroll nightmare that makes their championship look like an expensive mistake. After Jayson Tatum’s Achilles injury ended their playoff run in the second round, Boston is $23 million over the dreaded second apron with no easy way out.
“The CBA has been well known for years. So there are penalties associated with being at certain levels, and we know that,” Celtics president Brad Stevens said in May, sounding like a man trying to convince himself everything’s fine. Unless Brooklyn takes Kristaps Porzingis’ $30.7 million contract off their hands, the Celtics are stuck making multiple salary dumps just to breathe again. This NBA offseason chaos starts with the defending champs possibly having to gut their roster to avoid financial ruin.
The harsh reality? Their 2033 first-round pick gets frozen if they stay over the second apron, joining their already-frozen 2032 pick. Boston built a championship team, then discovered it can’t afford to keep it together.
Giannis drops the hammer on Milwaukee
The quote that launched a thousand trade rumors came in April: “Me not having a second championship — I look back at my career and everybody can say, ‘Oh, incredible career, active Hall of Famer, first ballot, whatever. But me, my personal goal, if I am not able to help my team win a second ring, I’m letting down myself.” ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo is “open to exploring” his future beyond Milwaukee, and suddenly every NBA general manager is checking their draft assets.
The problem for Milwaukee is simple math. Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and Kyle Kuzma will eat up $130 million of their $164 million payroll, leaving scraps for everyone else. Lillard turns 35 in July and is owed $113 million over two years while recovering from his own Achilles injury. The Bucks can only trade one first-round pick (2031 or 2032), making it nearly impossible to land the star help their star demands.
This NBA offseason chaos centers around whether Milwaukee can convince a two-time MVP to stay patient with a flawed roster, or if the Greek Freak decides to take his talents elsewhere before it’s too late.
Kevin Durant controls his own destiny
At 37, Kevin Durant averaged 26.6 points last season — sixth in the NBA — and now he’s telling everyone exactly what’s on his mind. “I want my career to end on my terms, that’s the only thing. I see a lot of dudes that don’t get that opportunity, so I want to keep putting in that work to make that choice on my own,” he said on Draymond Green’s podcast.
Phoenix is $25 million over the second apron with two expensive, underachieving seasons behind them. Durant’s in the final year of his deal, meaning the Suns face losing him for nothing if they don’t extend or trade him. The challenge is finding teams that can absorb his $54.6 million salary while still being championship contenders — exactly what Durant wants at this stage of his career.
Houston and San Antonio ready to pounce
The Rockets have everything needed for NBA offseason chaos: five tradeable first-round picks, young talent on rookie deals, and a GM in Rafael Stone who openly admits “continuity for continuity’s sake isn’t what we’re trying to achieve.” Houston’s collection of assets — including unprotected Phoenix picks in 2027 and 2029 — makes them dangerous buyers for any available star.
San Antonio sits in an even better position with Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox already in place. They have two lottery picks this year including No. 2, plus 17 second-rounders and $32 million to $44 million in cap flexibility. The Spurs are positioned to make the kind of aggressive move that turns a rebuilding team into instant contenders.
Golden State’s championship window is closing fast
The Warriors have the draft capital to make a splash — up to four tradeable first-rounders and seven years of pick swaps — but their salary structure is a disaster. Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler III, and Draymond Green comprise 85 percent of their payroll, leaving just $30 million for the other six players under contract.
“We’re good at giving up whatever it takes. It just depends on how good we think that will make our team,” GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. said, but the math doesn’t lie. Unless they include one of their aging stars, the Warriors can’t put together salary packages big enough for impact players. Jonathan Kuminga becomes critical as a restricted free agent who could be sign-and-traded to jumpstart their retool.
Teams desperate for different reasons
Denver’s Nikola Jokic called out their lack of depth publicly: “We definitely need to figure out a way to get more depth. It seems like the teams that have longer rotations, the longer benches, are the ones who are winning.” With only one tradeable first-rounder and Michael Porter Jr.’s contract as their main assets, the Nuggets face an uphill battle improving around their three-time MVP.
Orlando wants to transition from rebuilding to competing, but their core of Paolo Banchero, Jalen Suggs, and Franz Wagner played just six games together all season due to injuries. The Lakers need size after trading away Anthony Davis for Luka Doncic, while Brooklyn sits with $40 million in cap space and four first-round picks, ready to either overpay free agents or take on salary dumps for more assets.
This NBA offseason chaos promises to reshape the league’s landscape as teams with aging stars, salary problems, and championship aspirations all try to solve their problems simultaneously. The dominoes are already starting to fall, and by the time they stop, half the league could look completely different.
